New Product Blockbusters : The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets

By: Material type: ArticleArticleLanguage: ENG Series: ; 50Publication details: Fall 2007 0Edition: 1Description: 144-158 PpSubject(s): DDC classification:
  •  HoT
Online resources: Summary: The article discusses the use of prediction markets in launching new products. Due to the massive expenditures by companies on research and development (R&D) of new products and innovations, companies should ensure that only the most successful product ideas make it to launch. Prediction markets provide financial incentives to participants for the accuracy of their predictions, removing problems associated with the accuracy of consumer surveys and experts' panels. The Iowa Electronic Market run by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business has focused on predicting the outcomes of presidential elections. The operations of the market and its rules and incentives are discussed.
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The article discusses the use of prediction markets in launching new products. Due to the massive expenditures by companies on research and development (R&D) of new products and innovations, companies should ensure that only the most successful product ideas make it to launch. Prediction markets provide financial incentives to participants for the accuracy of their predictions, removing problems associated with the accuracy of consumer surveys and experts' panels. The Iowa Electronic Market run by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business has focused on predicting the outcomes of presidential elections. The operations of the market and its rules and incentives are discussed.

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