Forecasting Nominal Exchange Rate of Indian Rupee vs. US Dollar

By: Material type: ArticleArticleLanguage: ENG Series: ; 13Publication details: Jun 2007 0Edition: 6Description: 66-79 PpSubject(s): DDC classification:
  •  Pan
Online resources: Summary: In this paper the theory of flexible price and sticky price monetary model are empirically analyzed by using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to forecast nominal exchange rate of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. The period considered for analysis is January 1990 to January 2005. The forecast performance of the two models has been evaluated through RMSE, MAE, and MAPE in case of in-sample and out-of-sample. The study concludes that sticky price monetary model performs better than flexible price monetary model for in-sample as well as out-of sample. It is also found that the model is able to predict in-sample exchange rate better than out-of-sample exchange rate.
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In this paper the theory of flexible price and sticky price monetary model are empirically analyzed by using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to forecast nominal exchange rate of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. The period considered for analysis is January 1990 to January 2005. The forecast performance of the two models has been evaluated through RMSE, MAE, and MAPE in case of in-sample and out-of-sample. The study concludes that sticky price monetary model performs better than flexible price monetary model for in-sample as well as out-of sample. It is also found that the model is able to predict in-sample exchange rate better than out-of-sample exchange rate.

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